by Axel Bührmann

Kenya once again made history with the approval and promulgation of the New Constitution. The document has heralded with it a great enthusiasm to fight corruption and establish statesmanship among the current kingpins. This has translated almost automatically to the government working with an efficacy never witnessed in many countries of the world. But this efficacy also represents a sharp and an unprecedented shift from the previous order. The past paradigm had things being done more mechanically, and more personally- this new shift, representing a greater capitalistic stance with a less personal approach might just prove itself more devious to us during our formative years.

It is of course past reasonable argument that the new constitution is among the best constitutions of the world. The question here is not about how good the document is, and how much it will benefit the ‘sons of our sons’, but we have to develop an understanding to answer the rhetoric, ‘is Kenya ready for the best document?’ Are we ready to see all of our Ministers fall down in the axe of graft? Are our MP’s and senior civil servants going to gracefully accept defeat for the greater good? Which is easier, to accept meekly that you were corrupt in the past and step aside, or charging your misinformed supporters with conspiracies of how you have been targeted in graft?

Mr. Ruto, for instance, enjoys a religiously fanatic following that is second only to Mr. Odinga’s. His followers are ready to do much evil in defence of their leader, and his political future in the new constitution is highly unlikely. Ruto, being engaged in two criminal suits, compounded with the possibility of him having to face The Hague, erodes the possibility of him ever again having a public life once the new constitution is fully implemented.

With the current judiciary, or even the more efficient judiciaries of the West, it is against the acceptable level of probability that his cases will be concluded in under one and half years. Even greater is the probability that the Kalenjin bigwig will be found guilty. Both the two, whichever happens first, will confound Mr. Ruto to being a Member of Parliament come 2012. And how will it be seen in the eyes of the Kalenjin? It will much more likely provoke great distress (to the least) in the North Rift that the Eldoret North MP will be unable to vie for governorship or a senatorial portfolio.

With the newfound vigor in the KACC to fight corruption and its precipitates among the national leaders, the Ruto scenario might water down to all the current crop of Ministers. Having the Ministers criminally charged in a court of law will mean that they are grounded to be Members of Parliament at best. Try to imagine a Kenya without its current opinion makers- Ngilu, Mudavadi, Kosgey and many more to be implicated.  Will this go down well with most of the Kenyans?

We have always wanted change. Yes change is something to be desired, and has now come, but the change might just be counterproductive. The older order of things, though inefficient and laced with greedy and corrupt leaders, might better have been phased out more gradually. At this rate, it is unpredictable that we shall have general elections in August 2012, let alone a peaceful one.

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